March 3, 2009

DonorCast Book Review: Microtrends

For those that follow the field of political or opinion polling closely, Mark Penn is known as both legendary (he literally coined the term “soccer mom”) and polarizing (he rubs many other pollsters the wrong way, both personally and methodologically). Putting aside all that I knew of him—I found myself drawn to the premise of his book Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes.

Penn was a pioneer of the process of micro targeting, particularly in the political sphere, under the hypothesis that small numbers of like-minded people may be the future moving forces behind our world. In Microtrends, Penn identifies 70 groups that make up 1% of the population of the United States (roughly 3 million per group). He explains why they are important to identify (or “micro target”), as well as suggestions for responding to their interests and harnessing their energy. Some examples include “Extreme Commuters” (Josh is one), “Young Knitters,” “Vegan Children,” “Archery Moms,” and even “Numbers Junkies” (where I self-identify).

Some of the groups sound like they have transformative potential (the “High School Moguls” for example) where others sound more like just narrow interest groups (“New Luddites”). Still I think there are some important lessons, and perhaps the seeds of provocative questions, that can be taken from Penn’s work if you examine his premise from a higher altitude.

In fundraising, the idea of micro targeting may sound second nature to many of us. Development professionals spend a lot of time segmenting and targeting folks by broad interest groups (athletics, arts, alumni) and by giving capacity (major giving, annual fund). But have you stopped to consider a perhaps more complex, and certainly smaller segment of your donor database? Do you closely follow former members of a campus group from a certain decade, or people with certain double majors, or maybe even those who give money just to increase their standing for better tickets to athletic events (I might fall under all three).

Certainly many databases might not have 70 groups lying within, just waiting to have their passions and interests spoken to, and energy harnessed. I will challenge you however, to step outside the traditional segments in the fundraising canon, pick different selection criteria, or identifying characteristics, and see if you can find Microtrends for your own organizations.

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August 5, 2008

Book Review—Fundraising Analytics: Using Data to Guide Strategy

Here is a very in-depth and thoughtful review of Josh's book. The feedback for this work has been tremendous—it has even become standard reading for MBA programs.

If you have not yet had a chance to pick up a copy, read this review, and see if it might be useful in your work/professional development (I am betting it will be).

Fundraising Analytics: Using Data to Guide Strategy
Review by: Gayle L. Gifford, ACFRE, CharityChannel

Fundraising Analytics is a gift to the masses ... a lens into the world of the sophisticated fundraising operations that pump the big bucks into major US institutions. Written by Joshua M. Birkholz, the director of the analytics division of Bentz Whaley Flessner, a major fundraising consulting firm, the book’s subtitle is “Using Data to Guide Strategy” and that’s what the book delivers.

I read this book from the perspective of the majority of US charities (82%) – the ones with the budgets below $1 million. At first glance, this book might seem an irrelevant fantasy fit only for the top strata of charities. None of these nonprofits have the legions of prospect researchers, major gifts officers, data analysts, and annual fund managers discussed in this book. Heck, it’s a lucky find to encounter a small organization that has even one fundraising professional and/or a functioning donor database from which one might extract the kind of information that Birkholz discusses.

But don’t ignore this book. Ease your way. Try jumping ahead to Chapter 5, Data-Driven Prospect Management, and you’ll find a wealth of easily comprehensible wisdom on running a fundraising program that is worth the price of the book.

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May 14, 2008

How would you prefer to be sliced and diced?

Analytics has been pushed to the foreground of American minds by the 2008 election cycle. TV and news media provide seemingly endless hours of pundits and commentators discussing data and predictions. This analysis is based off of complex modeling as well as basic segmentation; political analytics brought us the terms "Soccer Moms" and "NASCAR dads" after all. While not the professional specialty area of most that read this blog, analytics is getting a lot of attention, and in many cases being applied in increasingly prominent ways.

I recently finished the book Microtrends by Political Analyst Svengali Mark Penn. The book offers a provocative analysis of “undiscovered,” yet potentially important populations in America, and promoted strategies on how to engage them and effect change. This idea of almost hyper segmentation has forced me to consider the ways in which I segment data and the resulting application.

I fundamentally believe that studying a heterogeneous group on a more micro level has great benefits, but I believe there can be costs as well. I hope others in our field give thoughtful consideration to the ways we “slice and dice” our data, as well as how “fine” we choose too cut.

You can segment individuals in a variety of ways, but many of these ways may not be useful for the questions you seek to answer. I may be identified as a “mid-twenties jazz music buff,” an “urban chess student and wine lover,” or as someone who “drives American” because I own a Pontiac. These are all accurate segments that connect me with others and offer some snapshots into my interests and purchasing preferences—but is it helpful to you? I feel there is a normal distribution related to the amount of segmentation conducted—a natural sweet spot, after which further division can create more problems than answers, or more incorrect conclusions than accurate ones.

Following the questions of “how do we cut” as well as “how deep” lies the next step: how should we use this information? Does segmentation serve as the sign post for a new fundraising strategy? Or does it simply signal more research? There are successful applications of both I believe, but it depends on the segmentation process and the questions you are trying to answer.

Read this article, consider analytic's emerging seat at the table in our world, and then ask yourself this question:

“How would I want to be identified (segmented) by organizations or causes I care about?”

What’s for Dinner? The pollsters want to know

If there’s butter and white wine in your refrigerator and Fig Newtons in the cookie jar, you’re likely to vote for Hillary Clinton. Prefer olive oil, Bear Naked granola and a latte to go? You probably like Barack Obama, too. And if you’re leaning toward John McCain, it’s all about kicking back with a bourbon and a stuffed crust pizza while you watch the Democrats fight it out next week in Pennsylvania.

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February 25, 2008

APRA Summit on Data Mining and Modeling

I would be negligent in my duties as promoting data mining and predictive modeling in the area of fundraising if I didn't promote this upcoming conference. This is a fantastic new forum that will feature many of the brightest and most creative minds in our field, including my boss Josh Birkholz. The conference also coincides with the release of his new book.

I will be there as well, and hope to connect with those who read this blog for in-person discussions about where data mining and modeling is today in fundraising, and where future directions may take us.

Hope to see you there!

Summit on Prospect Data Mining and Modeling April 3 – 4, 2008

Don’t miss the first-ever APRA Summit on Prospect Data Mining and Modeling - the year's best opportunity to interact with prospect researchers and analysts engaged at the cutting edge of the advancement research field. This two-day symposium will be divided into two groups of sessions: a beginners/management track, and an intermediate/advanced track. The beginners/management track will provide a solid grounding in the goals of, methods for and approaches to data mining. The intermediate/advanced track will showcase new technologies and present case studies of effective applications of statistical methods to prospecting and prospect management.

Whether you’re a proficient data miner, or a researcher or manager contemplating a foray into data mining, this summit will provide you with fresh insights, understanding and tools to help you better understand your constituent base. If you are engaged in building your prospect pool, looking for ways to prioritize and bring focus to an unwieldy database, or seeking to discover diamonds hidden in the rough of a broad annual base of support, this event is for you.

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April 26, 2007

Competing on Analytics

Here is a book I am eagerly anticipating. Thomas Davenport wrote an article of the same name for Harvard Business Review in January of 2006. I found the article enormously helpful for equipping researchers to make the case for building internal analytics programs. I will circle back to write a review in upcoming months.

The New York Police Department does it. The Harrah's casinos in Las Vegas do it. And businesses like Netflix are built entirely on the basis of it. It, in this case, is using the sophisticated analysis of data -- or "analytics" -- to drive decisions. As a concept, analytics is neither new nor complicated. Any dieter standing on the bathroom scale can attest that numbers are a more reliable source of information than intuition or a spouse's kind opinion. You might feel fit, but the numbers don't lie.

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